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Cushman & Wakefield "Economic Pulse" Reports Explore Strength and Stability of Regional Markets
20 Apr, 2010, New York
Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. today issued its global Economic Pulse reports for May 2010 which
analyze global economic trends in the Americas, Europe, and Asia and the implications for
business investment and commercial real estate activity. The reports show significant global
economic improvement has taken hold during the past quarter despite volatility and disparate
recoveries in certain markets within each region.
A brief summary of each report including the structural positives and negatives of each region and the consequences for commercial real estate markets is outlined below.
For full copies of the Economic Pulse reports via Cushman & Wakefield?s Knowledge Center (requires free registration) please go to: www.cushmanwakefield.com.
THE AMERICAS
U.S.: According to the Americas report, the U.S. is in recovery. The economic statistics used
to track the broad economy: income (adjusted for inflation) and production and
inflation-adjusted sales are all rising. More importantly for the real estate industry, the one
major measure of economic performance that had been lagging - employment has finally turned
decisively upward.
This recession did not hit all real estate markets equally. For example, Miami, one of the
cities with the largest job loss, saw its vacancy rate increase from 11.1% to 19.6%. Phoenix
experienced the largest employment decline of all the cities we tracked. During the past 12
months, the vacancy rate in Phoenix increased 8.8 percentage points, from 14.6% to 23.4%. On
the other hand, several cities with high shares of total employment in the financial services
and Government sectors such as New York, Boston and Washington DC have fared much better than
average.
CANADA: Overall, Canadian markets have fared much better than global counterparts. CBD vacancy rates in Canada averaged 7.4% in Q1 2010 as compared to an average across US markets of 14.7% in Q4 2009. The overall vacancy rate in Canada was 8.8% as compared to an average vacancy rate in Asia of 10.6% and an average vacancy rate across European Markets of 12.3%.
Canada's economy is likely to grow faster than Western Europe, Japan and the United States in the coming year. The financial sector and commodities are fueling business activity. GDP growth is anticipated to reach 3% in 2010. Employment growth has been moderate yet positive in the past seven months.
LATIN AMERICA: Latin America countries are experiencing strong economic recovery. Strong macroeconomic parameters are attracting more investors to the region; indeed, due the recent credit fears in Greece and Dubai, Latin America sovereign credit may become increasingly attractive to foreign investors.
Brazil seems to be poised for a successful first quarter in 2010 and possibly an outstanding year. General sentiment abroad and locally is extremely positive. According to economists, Brazil's foreign direct investment is expected to grow by 47% in 2010, reaching $38 billion. Infrastructure development ahead of the FIFA World Cup in 2014 and Olympic Games in 2016 are main economic drivers.
In general, Mexico City has fared quite well during the economic crisis. Property prices have not been significantly reduced, and the majority of the developers have performed relatively well with their loans, with of course some exceptions.
EUROPE
The report for Europe identifies signs of increasing activity from both occupiers and investors
in the European property market, with growth rates varying significantly among countries.
Data and sentiment indicators in the first quarter of 2010 suggest that growth has restarted for the region overall and almost all major European economies are set to see positive growth by the end of 2010, if not for the year overall in some cases.
In the short-term, economies such as France, Germany and Switzerland stand out for offering potential out-performance at below average levels of risk. The Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia are in the same category alongside Nordic Countries such as Sweden and Norway over a two to three year period.
However, while macro national-level risk factors are very much in focus as the tragedy of the Greek financial crisis unravels, the significant differences in growth outlook between cities within the same area is examined closely in the report.
ASIA PACIFIC
China and India's economies underwent a shallow dip in early 2009 and subsequently
reaccelerated towards the end of 2009. While China has captured the manufacturing world's
attention, India has carved for itself a formidable reputation as the business process and
services off-shoring hub of the world, primarily due to its large number of English speaking
and well-educated working population.
As the world, obsesses with the Chinese and Indian economic recovery, many lose sight of the fact that Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines have emerged as economic champions among businesses seeking new or secondary locations in the region.
Cushman & Wakefield's Asia report provides compelling insight on the emergence of this new triumvirate of nations as well as the strategic rationale behind what may become a significant reshaping of the economic landscape in Asia Pacific.
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