As we wait to see if European Union has the political will to save the ground project it is
interesting to consider what a negative outcome (which seems the most likely) would mean for
Russia in general and for the Russian Commercial Property Market in particular.
2011 has been to date a record breaking year. Total investment in property has already
exceeded its pre-crises high of 2008 and looks to top $8 billion by the end of the year which
will make it one of the most important investment markets in Europe. Office leasing activity
has been very active led by large occupiers looking to secure future requirements at what are
historically attractive rates. Again we expect transaction volumes to top the previous height
of 2008.
If anything at this point the turmoil in the western sovereign markets is helping the Russian
market, which looks increasingly attractive and secure and offers very healthy returns.
Headwinds are mostly caused by the lack of certainty as to what will happen next, which is
discouraging corporates from investing. By slowing the occupational markets and souring the
general outlook this can have a knock on effect on the investment markets.
The result of the political deliberations is too early to tell as what the politicians will
come up with remains uncertain. Whatever plan they unveil in the next couple of days or even
beyond, that discertainty is likely to be better for the Russian market than what we have
today.
Assumingly global meltdown is avoided we expect continued growth in the Russian market but
value will be increasing hard to find. Those interested in the market should move sooner rather
than later.
Listen here http://soundcloud.com/cushman-2/tim-millard-podcast-on-future