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New shopping centre development in Europe to decline until 2011
8 Sep, 2009, Frankfurt
Turkey and Russia leaders in new centre openings by end of 2010
• 2011 set to see lowest completion volumes since 2003
• Investments fall 54%
According to the latest “European Shopping Centre Development Report” produced by international real estate consultants Cushman & Wakefield (C&W), the number of new shopping centre openings has fallen across Europe this year and is set to continue to decline until 2011. C&W forecasts that new shopping centres totalling around 8.7 million m² in retail floor space will open this year, 5% less than in 2008. Next year, completions and centre expansions will be amount to just 7 million m², falling to 5 million m² in 2011 – the lowest level since 2003.
In the first half of this year, 3.1 million m² of retail space in 145 new shopping centres opened, 18% less than in the same period the previous year. Most of the new space came on to the market in Russia, where 580,000 m² was opened, with Moscow accounting for 45% of this space. In western Europe, Italy was the leader, with 18 new centres and more than 370,000 m² in retail space. Germany (149,000 m²) and the Netherlands (114,000 m²) also registered relatively high levels of building completion activity.
With expected developments amounting to 2 million m² and 1.8 million m², respectively, Turkey and Russia will also be ahead of the pack in terms of new retail space in 2010. In western Europe, France will see the largest amount of new floor space come on to the market next year, with developers there focusing on medium-sized centres in “B” locations. A look at percentage growth clearly shows that CEE countries are gaining significant ground: the amount of space available in Bulgaria, for example, should increase by 255% over the next 18 months if all projects open as planned. And Latvia now has per-capita retail space equivalent to that of the UK, France and Spain.
2011 compared with 2007
“Completions in Europe in 2011 will have fallen 45% compared with the peak year of 2007,” says Inga Schwartz, head of C&W research in Germany, “but we are a long way from a complete standstill. Some of the biggest players are using the advantages brought about by the dip in the market to further their national and international expansion – even given the large deposits that are still required.”
Investments drop 54%
Shopping centre investments in Europe over the first six months of this year are down 54% on the same period last year, at a total of EUR 8.3 billion. Whereas this investment segment has come to a standstill in Eastern Europe, investors are extremely active in established markets such as the UK, Germany, France and Spain. There are also signs that following two years of rises, yields throughout Europe are now stabilising. “In particular, German open-ended real estate funds are back on the market and showing interest in core products,” continues Inga Schwartz.
Planned completions in second half of 2009 to 2010
Source: C&W European Shopping Centre Development Report 09/09
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