The year 2012 started off with high hopes that the challenges faced by the global economy would be overcome and growth would accelerate. Instead, the difficulties intensified and the expected improvement got pushed back.
Nevertheless, the fundamental drivers continue to point to stronger growth. As solutions to the political-economic challenges are implemented and confidence returns, demand will build and lead to a much healthier economic climate.
Even though 2013 will get off to a slow start, Cushman & Wakefield is optimistic that the stage has been set for a significant turn-up late next year and a strong global rebound in 2014 and beyond. Read our Economic Pulse Forecast 2013 for global and regional analysis.
As Sigrid Zialcita, Managing Director, Research , Asia Pacific, explains, “Even though a number of countries will remain in recession through the first half of 2013, modest positive growth is forecast for the region overall. As well, the sluggish “average” of the region will hide some stronger areas of regional and sector growth.
For the office sector, sustained job gains will underpin steady improvement in leasing activity well into 2013, albeit strong increases are less likely. Grade A rents still have room to grow in most cities – with new records likely to be set in Shanghai, Beijing and Jakarta. A soft landing in China will also reinforce a growth slowdown in the region as it has evolved into a vital source of export demand for most Asian economies.
As David Hutchings, Partner and Head of the European Research Group, explains: “Europe’s problems are clearly deep and long lasting, but they are not universal across all markets and, while there is a long road left to travel and plenty of room for unpleasant surprises along the way, the first building blocks of a sustainable solution appear to have been put in place.
As David points out, “If we are right in our reading of the economy, the implications for the property market will be varied, with many occupiers remaining defensive, but some acting or preparing to release pent-up demand as confidence improves.”
Slow But Not Stalled – Stronger Growth On The Horizon
Listen to Maria Sicola, Executive Managing Director, Americas Research, explain why 2013 will be a transition year for the Americas, marked by modest to strong growth. While most of next year will be dominated by economic uncertainty, the underlying health of the regional economies will emerge as the fog lifts later the year, and drives growth higher.
For the real estate sector, 2013 may spell another pause in much of North America, while Central and South America will continue to grow at a healthy pace, but the stage has been set for strong regional growth in 2014 and beyond.
According to Cushman & Wakefield Chief Economist Ken McCarthy, 2013 will get off to a slow start for the global economy, but stability and growth will take hold later in the year as solutions to political-economic problems are implemented. While impacts will differ in each region and in local markets, hear why Ken sees 2013 as being a turning point that will lead to a stronger year in 2014.
Maria Sicola, Executive Managing Director of Research for the Americas, introduces Cushman & Wakefield’s new Economic Pulse report and presents an overview on the global real estate market. Watch now.
Ken McCarthy, Senior Economist and Senior Managing Director of Research, discusses the importance of consumer spending in economic recoveries. Listen now.
The Asia Pacific region seems to be weathering the global economic uncertainties - signs of confidence are returning in certain markets and an underlying mood of cautious optimism is taking hold across the region. Domestic consumption is strengthening intra-regional linkages, and as such, the region’s vulnerability to a global slowdown has been reduced significantly, except for Hong Kong, Singapore and Vietnam – all economies that are largely tied to US and Europe exports.
So far in 2011, hotel performances in the region have been varied. Some markets perform at par with the previous year, whilst others are showing encouraging signs of improved performances, in either occupancy rates and/or the average daily rates (ADRs).
We anticipate that this will continue through the rest of the year and into 2012, with the latter half of 2012 showing continued recovery with both occupancy and ADR posting further improvement.
The recovery is here and is likely to gain momentum as 2011 progresses. The entire region will benefit from stronger growth in the US, but all the major countries in the America's will be in full-fledged economic expansion mode. Healthy employment growth will contribute to declining vacancy in most markets, on average, and lead to a turn up in asking rents in the next 12 to 18 months. We are already seeing this trend take place in some markets.